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Why Have US-China Relations Improved? Advantages and Disadvantages for Japan

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As the war for hegemony between the United States and China prolongs, the United States sent Secretary of State Blinken to visit China, and China arranged a meeting between Mr. Brinken and President Xi Jinping. Why are the two countries now so active in improving relations? In this free e-mail magazine ” Russian Political Economy Journal “, international journalist Yukinori Kitano explains the intentions of each of the US and China to move toward reconciliation. I also consider how this trend will work for Japan.

Avoiding two-front operations and making money. Why did the US and China move to improve relations?

As you all know, Secretary of State Brinken visited China. It was the first time in five years that a U.S. Secretary of State had visited China. It seems that it is the first time for a minister of the Biden administration to visit China. Biden said of the visit that he was “on the right track.” What you can see from Blinken and Biden’s behavior is that “the United States wants reconciliation with China.”

What about the Chinese side? On June 18, Blinken met with Foreign Minister Qin Gang for seven and a half hours. On June 19, I had a three-hour meeting with Politburo member Wang Yi. On June 19, I met with Xi Jinping. Putting aside Qin Gang and Wang Yi, Xi Jinping himself will meet. China also wants to improve US-China relations. why?

China encirclement network strengthened by Biden, who was “pro-Chinese and anti-Japanese”

In October 2018, the world entered an era of hegemonic war between the United States and China following Vice President Pence’s “anti-China speech.” Concerns will spread once Biden becomes president in 2021. Because Biden used to be “pro-Chinese anti-Japanese”. However, as long-time readers know, I continued to argue that the US-China war for hegemony would not end even under the Biden administration. For example ↓.

● “Even with pro-China Biden, the US-China hegemonic war continues…” Is this the beginning of China’s collapse? America’s Great Unknown Strategy

* Release date is April 2, 2021, but recording date is mid-November 2020, before Biden took office

So what actually happened? Biden continued the US-China hegemonic war. in particular,

  • Strengthened quad (framework of Japan, America, India and Australia)
  • Launched AUKUS (United States, Great Britain and Australia) (September 2021)
  • Launched the Democracy Summit (109 countries and 2 regions around the world participated) (December 2021)
  • Launched IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework) (May 2022)

All of these are “movements to strengthen the siege of China.” And everyone has to admit, “Biden is continuing the US-China hegemonic war.” So why is he here and working for reconciliation with China?

America wants to avoid a “two-front operation” at all costs

The main reason is the war in Ukraine.

One is to avoid a “two-front strategy.” The United States is currently at war with Russia (though not directly) in Europe. If China were to invade Taiwan now, the US would be in real trouble because it would be “fighting Russia in the west and China in the east.” Furthermore, if North Korea invades South Korea, it will be forced to carry out a “three-front operation.” To prevent China from moving, it is necessary to reach some degree of reconciliation.

The second is to prevent China from providing arms and ammunition to Russia. Now Ukraine’s reversal offensive has begun. If China supplied Russia with arms and ammunition, Ukraine’s chances of winning would be greatly reduced. Therefore, the United States puts pressure on China, saying, “Don’t send arms and ammunition to Russia!”

Then China will naturally ask, “What’s in return?” The United States also gives candy, saying, “By reconciling with the countries of the Western camp, economic relations will be normalized and profits will be made.” That’s why Mr. Scholz and Mr. Macron visit China and talk about making money. “It is more profitable to make money with Europe, the United States, and Japan, which account for 50% of the world’s GDP, rather than partnering with Russia, which accounts for 2% of the world’s GDP.”

China fears rise in “China threat theory” in Europe, the United States, Japan, and Taiwan

So what are China’s motives?

One is the above-mentioned motive that “it would be more profitable to reconcile with Europe, the United States, and Japan.” The other is the situation in Taiwan.

Taiwan will hold a presidential election in January next year. Tsai Ing-wen, a popular anti-China candidate, has served two terms and can no longer run. China wants the pro-Chinese Kuomintang candidate to win in this presidential election. And I want the Kuomintang president to hold a referendum and achieve peaceful unification of Taiwan. Therefore, it is necessary to reach a certain degree of reconciliation so that the theory of China as a threat does not rise in Europe, the United States, Japan, and Taiwan.

What Japan Should Do to Win Against China Without Fighting

So the United States and China are moving toward reconciliation. What does this mean for our country, Japan? It may come as a surprise, but I would say it’s “extremely good”. why?

What are our fears?

The first is that China will invade the Senkaku Islands. The second is China’s invasion of Taiwan. Then,

  • The war between the US and Japan vs. China

or,

  • The war between Japan, the United States, and Taiwan vs. China

erupts. These are the two things we want to avoid.

Looking at the situation in Asia, China stands out, and the “balance of power” has collapsed. The Biden administration

  • quad
  • AUKUS
  • IPEF
  • democracy summit
  • Reunited NATO after falling apart in Trump era
  • improved Japan-U.S. relations
  • improved US-South Korea relations

In this way, the “balance of power” with China was restored. In other words, China has created a situation in which it is difficult to move. On top of that, the situation is currently moving towards reconciliation. In that case, it is highly likely that China will continue to maintain the status quo in a situation where it is difficult to invade the Senkaku Islands and Taiwan.

Will China then automatically become a hegemonic power? It won’t. China is

  • Passing the growth stage in the national life cycle and entering the low-growth maturity stage
  • The population has started to decline since last year. Due to the effects of the one-child policy for many years, the speed of population decline will accelerate
  • Xi Jinping despises Deng for China’s miracle growth and worships Mao Zedong for his economic ignorance

For these reasons, the high growth era will not return to China.

If we succeed in maintaining the balance of power policy for 10 to 20 years, we will be able to “win against China without fighting.” Our wish is not to win the invasion of Taiwan, the Sino-Japanese War, or the US-China War, but to prevent them from happening.

( Partial excerpt from the June 21, 2023 issue of the free e-mail magazine “ Russian Political Economy Journal ”)

Source : Mag2News

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